Monthly Report of the State’s Financial Administration Accounts – January 2020

In its monthly follow-up report for the State’s Financial Administration until the end of January 2020 (as published on its website), the Ministry of Finance indicates that total realized revenues until the end of the 10th month of the current Fiscal Year 2019/2020 scored KD 14.293 billion, which is 90.4% of the total estimated revenues for the entire fiscal year in the amount of about KD 15.812 billion.

In details, actual oil revenues until 31/01/2020 were at KD 13.066 billion, i.e. 94.2% of the estimated oil revenues for the entire current fiscal year in the amount of KD 13.863 billion, or about 91.4% of total collected revenues. The average Kuwaiti oil price for the first ten months of the current fiscal year 2019/2020 scored US$ 64.8 per barrel. An amount of KD 1.228 billion was collected from non-oil revenues during the same period with a monthly average of KD 122.758 million, while the total estimated amount for the entire current fiscal year was about KD 1.948 billion. This means that the realized amount if it continues at the monthly average, will be less for the entire current fiscal year by nearly KD 475 million than the estimated.

Expenditures allocations for the current fiscal year were estimated at approximately KD 22.5 billion, of which an amount of KD 12.837 billion has been actually spent according to the bulletin until 31/01/2020.  An amount of KD 2.290 billion has been obligated and considered as spent, raising the total expenditures -the actual and the obligated- to KD 15.127 billion. The monthly average of the actual expenditures and the obligated is nearly KD 1.513 billion.

Though the bulletin concludes that the budget achieved at the end of the 10th month of the current fiscal year a KD 833.326 million deficit before deducting the 10% of total revenues to the favor of the Future Generations Reserve, we publish it without recommending relying on it and taking into account that the monthly spending average will increase significantly by the end of the fiscal year. The surplus or the deficit figure by the end of the fiscal year relies mainly on oil prices and production volume in the remaining 2 months of the fiscal year, and the deficit may rise further if the actual expenditures increase more than the estimated allocation expenditures and that was a precedent that occurred in the previous fiscal year.