Oil and Public Finance – September 2019

By the end of September 2019, the 6th month of the current fiscal year 2019/2020 ended and the average price for Kuwaiti oil for most September scored US$ 62.2 per barrel, exceptionally higher because of the late attack on Saudi oil facilities, which is higher by US$ 7.2 per barrel or 13% than the new hypothetical price estimated in the current budget at US$ 55 per barrel. It is also higher by US$ 12.2 than the average hypothetical price for the past fiscal year in the amount of US$ 50 per barrel. The average oil price for the Kuwaiti oil during the past fiscal year 2018/2019 scored US$ 68.5 per barrel. The average price for September is lower by 6.3% than the average price for the past fiscal year and lower by US$ 17.8 per barrel than the budget’s parity price at US$ 80 per barrel, according to the Ministry of Finance after deducting 10% to the future generations’ reserve.

Kuwait is supposed to have achieved actual oil revenues in September of about KD 1.3 billion. Assuming that production and prices would continue at the current levels -an unrealistic assumption- Kuwait’s oil revenues for the entire current fiscal year would score nearly KD 16.8 billion, after deducting production cost for the entire year. This is KD 2.3 billion higher than the estimated for the current budget in the amount of KD 14.5 billion. Adding KD 1.9 billion in non-oil revenues, total budget revenues for the current fiscal year would score KD 18.7 billion. Comparing this figure with the expenditures allocations in the amount of KD 22.5 billion, it would be likely that the public budget would score a deficit by KD 3.8 billion. However, six months are only good enough to be used as an indicator to the hypothetical deficit of the budget. The actual deficit will be a variable subject to the movement of oil prices and production levels during the remaining part of the year.