Oil and Public Finance – October 2019

By the end of October 2019, the 7th month of the current fiscal year 2019/2020 ended and the average price for Kuwaiti oil for October scored US$ 60.5 per barrel, which is higher by US$ 5.5 per barrel or 10.1% than the new hypothetical price estimated in the current budget at US$ 55 per barrel. The average price for the Kuwaiti oil barrel for the first 7 months of the current fiscal year scored US$ 64.6, which is lower than the average Kuwaiti oil price for the past fiscal year 2018/2019 by 5.7% that was at US$ 68.5. The average price for October is lower by 11.6% than the average price for the past fiscal year and lower by US$ 19.5 per barrel than the budget’s parity price at US$ 80 per barrel, according to the Ministry of Finance after deducting 10% from total revenues to the future generations’ reserve.

Kuwait is supposed to have achieved actual oil revenues in October of about KD 1.3 billion. Assuming that production and prices would continue at the current levels -an unrealistic assumption- Kuwait’s oil revenues for the entire current fiscal year would score nearly KD 16 billion, after deducting production cost for the entire year. This is KD 2.1 billion higher than the estimated for the current budget in the amount of KD 13.9 billion. Adding KD 1.9 billion in non-oil revenues, total budget revenues for the current fiscal year would score KD 17.9 billion.

Comparing this figure with the expenditures allocations in the amount of KD 22.5 billion, it would be likely that the public budget would score a deficit by KD 4.6 billion. However, seven months are only good enough to be used as an indicator to the hypothetical deficit of the budget. The actual deficit will be a variable subject to the movement of oil prices and production levels during the remaining part of the year, and is affected by the difference between the actual and the estimated expenditures by the end of the current fiscal year.