We are concerned with the issue of Britain’s systematic or unsystematic exit from the European Union except in two indirect dimensions. The first and more important is the focus in the differences in the two positions on the fate of the British economy and its future work force as a result of what might happen. The second is its potential impact on the disturbance of the global economy’s environment with its pressure on the oil market. While all parties to the internal conflict in Britain agree on the need to respect the choice of the British people in the referendum when they voted in favor of exit by a majority of 52% versus 48%. Though the difference of 4% offers a small majority, and contrary to the provisions of the European Union’s establishment regulations to repeat the referendum after one year if the difference was less than 5%, as in the case of the Danish peoples’ vote on the Maastricht Accord when the repetition saved the European Union in 1992. That condition is lacking in the British referendum. Therefore, the main weapon remaining for those who still support the exit is the victory for democracy.
In an article published on 03/09/2019, the “UNCTAD” estimates that the costs of unsystematic exit will be enormous for Britain while it is currently under an extremely difficult economic situation. In addition to the huge exit fine, Britain currently benefits from 40 trade
agreements with 70 countries connected with the EU by preferential trade terms. More importantly, out of a total of US$ 450 billion of UK merchandise exports, about half of which are exempt from tariffs to the EU. In the best case scenario of unsystematic exit, Britain will lose about 7% of them or about US$ 16 billion. Within the current UK exports to countries with trade agreements with the European Union benefitting Britain, continuity of about 17% of those agreements are doubtful, i.e. vulnerable to risks. In addition, about 10% of Britain’s exports are to countries with preferential treatment agreements with them. The decision to renew those agreements has not been resolved yet and they remain potentially risky.
Most of Britain’s losses will come from sectors that are highly sensitive sectors due to their high prices because of customs fees such as cars, processed foods, textiles, chemicals and leather. It may also lose preferential treatment with new markets that are having negotiations at an advanced stage to have preferential agreements with the EU, with the heavier negotiating power.
The British concern which comes at a time of economic weakness lies in the implications of these repercussions on the labor market and on inflation, which means lowering living standards, especially with possible bottlenecks at customs outlets. The concern also extends to Britain’s unity such as the possibility of Scotland’s returning to the separation project, or the repercussions of the border dilemma, which is the free movement of goods between the Republic of Ireland, EU member, and Northern Ireland. This is the dialogue language during the gravest political crisis facing Britain since the Second World War. It is all about the fate of the country, its economic growth and its labor force. We wish the infection would hit Kuwait’s Public Administration where concern is centered only on its continuity, which did not take into account the impacts of those crises in their negative pressure on the oil market even more than it is pressured.